Estimating future human economic growth

A fundamental characteristic of information patterns is that they are exponential in nature. Each salient discovery promotes higher levels of effiency, not merely cummulative input, and allows more complex technologies to evolve.

Looking at past numbers and calculating an exponential trend, the reason for which becomes apparent by looking at past growth, we can estimate the GDP value with an interesting precision. Numbers were taken from a paper published by J. Bradford Delong, from U.C. Berkeley, about past economic growth.

We start from 1000 to 1850, where we see GDP grows by a factor of 5-6 times in the first 800 years:

Growth from 1900 to 2000 shows a sharp exponential increase and grows by a factor of 18 to 37 times:

Graphs reveal the exponential trend, slowly at first but sharp closer to 2000:

The exponential trend is more observable on the complete millenium scale:

What is most interesting, however, is if we calculate the exponential trend. Incidentally, it is pointless to calculate the trend prior to 1900, as growth is too slow. The knee of the curve sits from 2000 to 2010:

If past trends keep the pace, we should expect a GDP of:

• 2020: $80 trillion
• 2040: $150 trillion
• 2060: $280 trillion
• 2080: $510 trillion
• 2100: $935 trillion

As economic capital further relies on information, it is natural for its processes to grow along information functions rather than work functions.

Links to high-resolution images: 1000 to 2100 and 1900 to 2100.